My reflections on Indian Politics

It has been a while since I wrote anything of consequence. There are a multitude of reasons for my protracted absence – laziness, lack of inspiration, my habit of staying busy in arbitrary things etc. But more than anything else, it was this feeling of despondency that had set in with me believing that the most wonderful experiences were behind me.

I believe this phase of my life to be the consolidation phase. Over the last couple of years I have been consistently trying to connect the dots, to find a cause on which to spend my energy.  This post is partly inspired by recent events and partly by this desire to understand what I love and what that means for me. Whenever somebody asks me what excited me most when I was young , my mind inadvertently reverts back to the exit polls and opinion polls that used to be telecast so frequently on DD in politically turbulent 90s. Perhaps this interest was partly due to lack of choice. I didn’t have cable installed at the time and one can argue that in those days politics could qualify as one of the most interesting things to be broadcast on DD. Even at that young age, I used to spend hours discussing with my parents, friends and relatives the various permutations and combinations (ya coalition politics is a delights for analysts ) that go into the process of government formation.

As a child I used to be a big supporter of Congress and Rajiv Gandhi. Perhaps it was his youthful charm and well mannered nature that pulled me towards him. We were in Bombay when he was assassinated. I still remember the headline on the front page of the newspapers one early morning in May, ‘Rajiv Gandhi Assassinated’. Growing up in Punjab in the 90s, one got used to the daily dose of violence and killings, and assassinations were quite in vogue at the time. I remember thinking after the incident that no one can stop Congress from coming to power now, the claim which was vindicated very soon. Early 90s were an age of turbulence because of more reasons than one. The tearing down of the Babri Masjid, subsequent riots across India on Muslims, Mumbai bomb blasts- Little did I know at the time that the impact of these events would be felt far into the future.

By the mid 1990s India was rocked by a series of scandals that disillusioned me from the Congress. Also it was around this time that I started reading about BJP and its philosophy. There were few friends in my class who used to regularly attend RSS camps and sing praises about RSS’s ethos and promise. It was very difficult to win a political argument against them as they were generally the best informed and most extreme in their viewpoint. Till now I have seen BJP supporters to be the most radical among all my friends. BJP’s rise, in part was fueled due to people’s frustrations with Congress and its dynastic politics, so it was natural to find the most aggressive and anti establishment figures in BJP. Slowly but surely I too started to like this right wing, nationalistic party that exuded pride and promised to restore confidence back to the country. Their idealism was fresh and inspiring for a young, impressionist mind like me. No wonder the elections in late 1990s saw it emerge as the biggest party in the country.  There’s hardly any inspiring Congress leader that I remember from that period. Leaders like Vajpayee, Sushma Swaraj, Promod Mahajan and Jaitley came across as highly learned and capable people in contrast to Congress which seemed to be full of sycophants and yes sayers.

I remember the day BJP government lost the vote of confidence of 1 vote. There was a surge of disappointment and injustice throughout my circle. This is also the time when the Italian Bahoo of Nehru dynasty started presiding over the fortunes of Congress. For me, the most enduring memory of that period is her proclamation in front of Rashtrapati Bhawan , “ We have 272”. The fact the she fell well short of majority afterwards didn’t endear her to masses either. There was no single issue that united the electorate as much as the prospect of averting the swearing in of India’s first foreign born Prime Minister. The sense of injustice and indignation ensured that BJP came back to power with a much larger mandate and Congress slumped to its heaviest defeat in India’s electoral history. That was 1999 and the winds of change that had started to blow started gathering momentum across India.

The next 5 years saw a significant change in the country’s fortunes. Change came slowly but surely, albeit at first through the metros.  This was also the time when I shifted to Delhi and started the next phase of my journey.  In Delhi, I was able to clearly witness the impending change from close quarters. I lived in a hostel and used to go home once every 40 days or something. One of my routines before boarding the train home was to spend some time window shopping in Cannaught Place. Everytime I went, the place seemed a bit different- with a new restaurant or a new shop or a new office.  By the time BJP finished its 5 year term, there didn’t seem to be any doubt in my mind that they were heads and shoulders above the Congress in terms of governance and administration. When BJP proclaimed India is shining, we in Delhi concurred. When we received a message from Vajpayee himself asking us to vote for BJP, we felt proud. So when the results came and BJP found itself at the wrong end of the verdict, I was visibly surprised. Clearly, neither me nor BJP knew how the elections are won in the heartlands of India.  

It seems I just had to go home once to realize the reason for this mismatch of outcome. Delhi’s dynamism had led me to believe in the message of change and India shining that BJP propounded. But the moment I moved out of Delhi, I realized how hollow the claims were. Nothing had changed in my hometown in years. It still grappled with the same old problems of sewage, bad roads, congestion etc. People in the countryside could not understand what all the fuss was about. It seemed the political commentators had a reason to believe that BJP ignored the ground realities of the country and was punished for that. The more rational analysts, however,  argued that election results in India are hardly a verdict on development and are essentially a sum total of various combinations of caste, religion and region – an art that BJP had come to manage well. So, lack of development could hardly have made such a big difference. I personally think that more than the economic policies; it was the coalition arithmetic that made BJP lose the 2004 election.  One of the reasons why BJP was able to rule for 6 years was coz it assumed an early lead in the coalition politics era of 1990s. Congress at the time was still in its national party persona and had refused to go into pre poll alliance with any party. This changed in 2004 and Congress fought the elections with a few crucial allies like RJD and DMK who performed exceedingly well in their respective states, thus boosting their alliance numbers. For example BJP lost out when it decided to go with AIADMK rather than DMK in Tamil Nadu. TN politics in the past have always favored the opposition and the results are mostly a complete sweep in favor of one party. BJP profited from AIADMK’s near sweep of TN in 1999 but the same party drew a blank in 2004. That and the loss of UP (amid the anti communal din precipitated by Godhra riots) made sure that BJP lost an election that everyone thought was theirs for the taking.

Amidst all the din and noise about the issue of foreign prime minister, Sonia Gandhi delivered a body blow – by refusing to become PM and anointed the technocrat Manmohan Singh to lead the country instead. Manmohan Singh had all the qualities that a compromise candidate should possess. A career academic, he never had the force of personality and political wherewithal to become a threat for the leadership authority of Sonia Gandhi.  Neither did he have a political backing to make independent decisions. What he had in plenty was intelligence, humbleness and honesty –the qualities that were to prove his USP 5 years later. What followed next was a 5 year period that despite being pretty low on reforms proved to be extremely fruitful in terms of India’s growth. This was the time that the reforms laid down by NDA had finally started bearing fruit, launching India on to a higher growth trajectory.

Meanwhile, in the rough and tumble of day to day living, I lost touch with most everyday issues and started caring even less for politics. Life seemed to be moving too fast to think and care about the reasons for now. But the moment I graduated from IIT, I realized the need to get back in the system and understand the stupendous change that was taking place all around me. The desire to learn and then contribute has made me read almost anything that was written in newspapers about India and her policy issues. It was during this time I realized the importance of small policy changes that could, if done properly, translate into jobs and livelihood for millions and if done badly hurl a country down the path of poverty and instability. Thing about India is that one does not need to run complicated optimization models to decide on which policy to follow.  A simple common sensical and open approach to decision making is all that’s required to harvest most of the low hanging fruits.

That brings us to the present day. Another election has taken place and against all odds Congress has again won, this time with a decisive mandate, its biggest in 25 years. And for the first time in almost a decade, I am not disappointed that BJP has lost. One might say that the initial euphoria associated with BJP had gone and replaced by a pragmatist hope for stability. Frankly after Vajpayee, I haven’t seen any leader in BJP who inspires confidence. To its credit, I would say that Congress knows who its electorate is and how to translate governance into votes. It is totally rational politically to draft policies that impact millions of people as opposed to few elites, whatever the economic rationale might be. And in Rahul Gandhi, they have again found a young prince who can bowl over India’s teeming poor with his charm and surname. One of the legacies of the colonial times that we still are struggling to shake off is our adulation of rulers and princes and Rahul’s emergence will ensure that Congress stays in the thick of things for some years to come.

If you ask me, what do I think about the philosophy of BJP and Congress, I would say that at this stage of India’s development, I welcome any party that works to unite the nation and understands and implements the time tested policies that could help unlock India’s potential. I like the concept of Hindu nationalism to the extent that it tries to provide an identity to people, asserts that rather than feeling inferior due to our poverty and colonial history, we fill proud of our rich heritage and culture. However, I reject their politics of religious extremism and intolerance. What we do not want is a polarized society that leads to tensions, instability and violence.  That said a party is merely a reflection of the beliefs and aspirations of a society. The reason that so many parties exist in India is simply because people differ in their beliefs. To say, that India must have a single or a 2 party system goes against the rational of providing voice to all sections of the society in a democracy. What the parties must do instead is to understand the points of unison rather than division among the various sections of society and shape their agenda so that they can serve as a platform to all sections of the society. As is the case with most things that is easier said than done.

Lastly I cannot help but comment on the deep divide between the urban and rural voters in the manner that the politics is perceived in India. In politics, the stakes are always higher for the rural voter as it is him who is the first victim of bad economic policies, communal violence and inflation. Money can help urban voter bypass most of the benefits and costs incurred due to injudicious choice. But the only way for poor people to feel connected and powerful is if they can have someone from their own fold as part of the political process- thereby giving rise to caste and religion based politics.  As the Indian democracy matures and politicians start getting held accountable for their actions, this divide in perception would also subside. We do not know when this time would come but one thing that is certain is that neither India nor Bharat can exist in isolation.